It’s still the economy, stupid!
In a world where facts matter (they do), the Fiscal & Economic Issues group of NWSOFA Indivisible* produces an objective analysis of our state and Federal economic status. There is a lot to digest. Here is a summary. First the chart. Then the talking points:
1.Job creation was faster in Obama’s last 29 months (6.4 million) than Trump’s first 29 (5.6 million)
2.The total number of persons with jobs (151 million) has been setting records since May 2014
3.The unemployment rate has been improving for all ethnic groups since peaking at 10% in October 2009. It regained the pre-crisis (Dec 2007) level of 5.0% in September 2015 and was 3.7% in June ‘19
4.The 2018 budget deficit of about $800 billion was $300 billion higher (60%) than the $500 billion forecast when Trump was inaugurated, due to Trump’s tax cuts and additional spending. Revenue was nearly $300 billion below forecast.
5.The 2018-2027 debt addition forecast (sum of annual deficits) increased from $9.4 trillion assuming the continuation of Obama policy to $13.0 trillion under Trump, +$3.6 trillion or 38%
6.The number of persons without health insurance increased by 1.9 million or 7% from Dec 2016 to Dec 2018. The first increase in the number of uninsured since 2010 happened in 2017, due significantly to Trump’s ACA sabotage efforts.
7.Real GDP growth of 2.9% for the full year 2018 was the same level as 2015
8.Quarterly GDP growth was 3.1% in Q1 2019. Quarterly real GDP growth has been 3% or greater in 16 quarters since Q1 2009; 12 times under Obama and 4 times under Trump
9.The trade deficit has increased from 2.7% GDP in 2016 to 3.0% GDP in 2018. Studies indicate the tariffs have increased the price of imports and thus are paid by consumers, like a tax
10.Real median household income set an all-time record in 2016 at about $60,000 and continued to increase in 2017 to about $61,000; the 2018 data is pending.
11.Real wage growth was faster in 2015-2016 under Obama than 2017-2018 under Trump
12.Inflation was lower in 2015-2016 under Obama than 2017-2018 under Trump
13.Mortgage rates were lower in 2015-2016 under Obama than 2017-2018 under Trump
14.The number of persons on food stamps (SNAP program) peaked in 2013 at 47.6 million and has fallen each year since, to 40.3 million in 2018
*Thanks to North West Suburban – Obama for America (NWSOFA) Indivisible and Karl Faulstich for assembling this analysis EVERY MONTH.